A lot of SEO is pure, predicable mathematics. We’re dealing with highly complex mathematical formulas and thus, a lot of it can be predicted with solid accuracy. Even still, there are some parts where it’s mainly guesswork; where we have to “shoot from the gut” where (as Steven Colbert would put it) truthiness plays a bigger role in decision making than fact – especially when facts are not available. The prediction of algorithmic and/or toolbar PageRank pixels are such events. The fine folks at Google don’t call me up personally to let me know when updates will happen (I know, you’re disappointed but it’s true).
That said, here’s some truthiness for you – there’s an update coming and it’s coming this weekend. What kind of an update I don’t know. I’d bet algorithmic but I wouldn’t bet a lot. I’d put a lot more money down of there being an update of some kind however.
This post was inspired by a phone call I had recently with a client who asked when I thought the next update was coming. I said probably tomorrow afternoon or evening. I realized shortly after saying it that I said it quickly and with little hesitation and so I decided to make it public so you can all mock me if I’m wrong. I’m not sure why I’m so sure the update is coming then. I’ve made predictions of updates in the past and I’m generally pretty accurate though it has more to do with a feeling than a knowing. Perhaps there’s a pattern I’ve yet to pick up consciously. Or maybe it’s that phone call from Matt I got earlier.